Hellraiser Boxing News | Dorticos vs Kudryashov: WBSS Quarter Final 4
Our stats man Steve Fearon takes a look at the final Quarter Final in the World Boxing Super Series Cruiserweight competition; Yunier Dorticos versus Dimitry Kudryashov.
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by Steve Fearon
World Boxing Super Series
Cruiserweight Matchups, QF4 – Yunier Dorticos v Dimitry Kudryashov
Now this might well be the pick of the opening rounds!
Yunier Dorticos is the 31 year old Cuban, fighting out of Florida, who has stopped an opponent in 95% of his wins, and comes into the tournament on the back of an unbeaten record.
He will be facing the 31 year old Russian Dimitry Kudryashov, who has only been beaten once, and has never been in a match that has gone the distance, stopping 21, and being stopped once!
Wowee, this fight has an extremely high chance of being a quick finish!
Experience wise, both have had a very similar number of professional fights, with 22 for Kudrayshov and 21 for Dorticos, and they are same age, so both are coming into this fight experienced and at their peak.
As mentioned previously, there is one defeat between them, on Kudryashov’s record, so we have to say that both fighters have very strong records, and should be in good shape for this fight with little to split them. Obviously the ‘0’ on Dorticos elevates his record above Kudryashov’s, but until we look at the standard that both have fought at, it would be churlish to assume that it tells the full story.
When we look at the likelihood of this fight ending early, there is very little that indicates this fight going the distance. Kudrayshov has never been in a fight that has gone to the judges, with 21KO Wins and 1KO loss, and Dorticos has been in exactly one fight that went to the cards, so both fighters have fearsome reputations for stoppages, with little to split them quantitatively.
Let’s take a look at the win% of their past opposition, and see where they sit relative to each other.
Dorticos averages 59% versus Kudryashov’s 69%, suggesting that perhaps his impressive unbeaten record is at least partially padded against weaker opposition, so lets take a look at the last 10 opponents for both and see if the picture changes.
In his most recent 10 fights, Dorticos has faced an average win% of 73%, so a bit better than his overall percentage. Kudryashov's last 10 average 85% however, so there still seems to be a large disparity in the level of opposition these fighter have faced, suggesting Kudryashov may have the edge in top tier boxing.
This means we have to consider that Dorticos’ record may be the flimsier of the two, and that we have to reduce the stock we have put into it.
In terms of momentum, Dorticos comes in on the back of 5 wins (4 stoppages, 1UD) and Kudryashov on 4 wins and one loss (all stoppages), so we theoretically consider Dorticos the more ‘In-form fighter’, however he has only fought once in 2016/17, whereas Kudryashov has fought 3 times and won all 3, so in terms of their relative momentum, its difficult to separate them.
So then…who do I think is going to win this battle of the bangers?
Dorticos is unbeaten, and Kudryashov has been stopped before, so against a proven big hitter is vulnerable, right?
Kudryashov has far the better record of fighting opponents with strong records, suggesting that his KO wins are worth more than Dorticos’, since he is fighting opponents with more wins under the belt.
I think I am going to stick my neck out, and go with Kudryashov, as I fell Dorticos’ record has a flimsy feel to it, whereas I think we can trust Kudryashov’s as a decent reflection of where he is.
I will go with Kudryashov by Stoppage, being the man to take Dorticos’ ‘0’ and the first to stop him.
Steve will be back with his predictions for the World Boxing Super Series Cruiserweight Semi Final and Final very soon. After that he'll be breaking down the Super Middleweight competition.
Posted: 1st Aug 2017
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