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Mayweather McGregor: Understanding Gambling

Adam is not a gambler, but in this series- using his “last” £8, he attempts to understand the world of sports betting over several weeks. Or until the money runs out. He will be chronicling his journey right here on the Hellraiser website.

Please do feel free to Tweet and send over suggestions/ corrections to Adam. He needs all the help he can get!

Part one

Understanding Gambling Part Two: Mayweather vs McGregor

By Adam Thorn

After the initial nightmare that was my inability to hold onto the almost £60, hacienda days (minutes), following my win in the AJ versus Klitschko fight; I set myself the task of turning my remaining £8 into at least the £20 I’d originally put in my nameless online betting account.

This time I’m using fractional odds, which I’m told are more British, and I found a website (oddsconverter.co.uk) which easily translates the different odds formats. See, I’m learning already!

Thanks to Darryll Williams winning, Robert Guerrero losing, and a sneaky, unjournaled, bet I had on Mikey Garcia to beat Adrian Broner, I am now up to £19.20. Just 80p away from breaking even. There’s quite a lot of boxing on this weekend, so plenty to think about where to place my money.

Miguel Cotto fights Yoshihiro Kamegai, the ageing but brilliant Cotto should see his penultimate fight end with a victory against a well picked opponent. At 11/50 the odds are Ok for a fight I’m pretty confident about. Remember I plan on getting above £20 with almost surefire bets. After that, assuming there is an after that, I might diversify.

Also on this weekend, in Las Vegas, there’s the Money Train that is Floyd Mayweather versus Conor McGregor. I’m not going to talk too much about the fight as Mickey’s vlog will cover it in depth, and he knows boxing a lot better than I do. However, I think it’ll be a walkover for Floyd, and the 8oz gloves even tempt me towards a knockout.

We’ve just come from Las Vegas and the Mayweather Gym, and everyone I spoke to said how hard Floyd has been training, in private. He’s one for giving the impression he’s putting no effort in. The behind the scenes docs, which Mayweather produces, back up this fallacy of inaction on his part.

First up on the card is the Nathan Cleverly versus Badou Jack WBA world light heavyweight title fight. Cleverly is not the favourite despite being the champion, and this being Jack’s first fight up at light heavy. This means the odds on Clev are longer, 3.75 11/4 to Jack’s 4/1, and I’m tempted by it as I like Cleverly. But is it too much of a risk for my precious nineteen quid, just because I like the guy? Quite probably, I’m reticent.

Gervonta “Tank” Davis defends his IBF super featherweight title against Francisco Fonseca, and this is a much more safe bet. Tank is absolutely going to walk through opponents for a little while yet, in my humble opinion. He dismantled Jose  Pedraza and Liam Walsh, and Fonseca is not of their calibre. This, though, is reflected in the odds of a 1/50 return on Davis. My £19.20 would not even creep over £20 on this bet. So is it too safe?

Lastly, I am faced with betting on the circus. Something which if it were to give me a decent return I’m tempted by I must say! The money going on this fight is insane, and it’s all thanks to the hype machine, which as I’ve mentioned is engineered by Floyd. It’s in his interests to win a fight which has loads of question marks over, rather than being a surefire thing. It is also in my interests!

Conor’s many fans will see the longer odds and put their money in, which will shorten the odds. At least this is how I think it works, novice as I am. Mickey strongly believes a last minute push by McGregor fans will mean I can get better than the 4/1 currently on offer towards the end of the week*. Is this too good to be true? 4/1 would see a £24 mountain of cash in my account!

What should I do? Answers on a postcard tweet as we’ve not long until the fight.

*Learning point number 1. It’s been brought to my attention that these odds can be beaten. As a total noob I was confused! Should I shop around for bets?! Something for me to look into for next time.

Posted: 24th Aug 2017

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