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The Stats Breakdown! Williams vs Smyle 2


Today I am taking a look at what the records of these two fighters can tell us about this fight, and whether the first fight was an anomaly or an accurate reflection of their careers to date.

Age

Both Fighters are at their theoretical Peak, with Smyle 31, and Williams 27, so both will be about as resilient as they will ever be, as was reflected in the non-stop action of the first fight.

Height

Smyle has a little height advantage being at 5’11 compared to Williams’ 5’9, which might suggest he would be happier on the outside, using this small difference to exploit the middle distance and land straight punches. In the first fight, Smyle often conceded the middle distance, allowing Williams to close, and turn the match into an up close spectacle, which arguably will suit Williams more.

It will be interesting to see if Smyle will do similarly in this fight, or whether he will work harder to maintain that distance.

Experience

Smyle has now fought 21 bouts, and in the course of doing so, has fought 93 rounds, giving him a big advantage over Williams who has fought 15 times to date, over 59 rounds.

As a raw number, you would expect Smyle to be able to exert some smart pressure, and use his experience to control the fight, and I imagine this will be a big part of his strategy for the rematch, as Williams was able to dictate large parts of the fight first time round.

Record

Williams comes into this fight with a 100% win record, and Smyle with a 67% win record.

Both fighters have a 40%-ish Win By KO%, suggesting that over their career they are just as likely to win on points as by KO, which again is reflected in the result of the first match, where despite incredible pressure, and many shots landing, neither fighter ended the fight early.

These numbers however are not always all that indicative, so we will have to look further into the level of opposition, to judge their records against the quality they have faced.

Level Of Opposition

Smyle has faced 21 opponents in his career, 12 of which have a winning record, and with an average win % of 56%, suggesting that he has faced a decent level of opposition in his career, and if we add up the total bouts of his opponents when he faced them, he has faced the combined experience of 429 bouts.

Williams has faced 5 less opponents than Smyle, and only 2 have had winning records so far (1 of which being Smyle), but his opponents have had a combined experience of 428, so he has been fighting generally a more experienced fighter, which comes with lessons of its own.

The average win% of Williams’ opponents is only 26%, so it is fair to conclude that Williams’ has faced a lower class of opponent than Smyle so far, though that would probably be fair given the difference in fights.

If we look at Smyle’s opposition stats after 15 fights, he had faced 8 opponents with winning records, and an average win% of 49%, so Smyle certainly looks to have had a relatively difficult early career, and this additional experience would suggest that he should be more used to hard fights than William.

It is also worth noting that Williams took 4 of his 5 losses in his first 15 fights, and that 8 of those fights were against similarly inexperienced Pro’s, so he may not have gleaned as much about the tricks of the trade, as Williams has at the same stage, having fought a more experienced class of opponent.

Last 5 Fights

If we isolate the last 5 fights for both fighters, we get a better idea of where they are at this stage of their career, and the numbers can shift a fair amount.

Smyle has won just 3 of his last 5 fights, with one loss (to Williams) and one draw to Cello Renda.

Of those he has won one fight by KO, giving him a ‘Won By KO%’ of 33% which is a drop on his overall average, but he has faced 4 out of 5 opponents with a winning record in doing so.

These fight opponents also average a win% of 76% and so were of a good class, this theoretically tells us two things, that he is used to fighting at a competitive standard, and that he may start showing the wear and tear of fighting at this level, particularly since most are going the distance.

Williams has won all 5 of his recent fights, 3 of which were by KO, raising his ‘Won by KO%’ to 60%, which may indicate he is improving at generating power, or targeting his big shots.

However in his most recent 5 fights, only 2 opponents had winning records, and the average win % was still only 41%, which is significantly less than Smyle.

Conclusions

So what after all this fiddling around with their records can we conclude about the first fight, and indeed the second fight?

- Smyle carries a significant experience advantage, and has fought at a higher level more consistently, which should allow him to make smart choices and strategically dominate the fight.

- Williams has jumped up in quality to fight Smyle the first time, and proved that he has the ability to fight at this level, but whether this is a ‘one-off’ or is now his level remains to be seen.

- Both fighters carry a career average ‘Wins By KO’ of around 40% but if we look at the more recent fights, Smyle’s drops to 33% and Williams’ increases to 60%, suggesting that if this fight stops early, it will be Williams still standing.

- As the older fighter, and the more significant fighter, Smyle may start to show signs of the 93 rounds he has fought, particularly as he has been KO’d twice, and has gone the distance on a number of occasions.

The key factor in this fight will be Smyle’s experience, and whether he is able to apply it successfully, as this is the biggest quantitative difference between the two.

If Williams is able to apply the same constant pressure he did in the first fight, I believe he will get the KO, around rounds 7-9, but if Smyle is able to box smarter, use his experience, move round the ring, keep his jab and straights in William’s face, he may be able to win this on points.

However, going by the records, I think Smyle may have found his level, and will lack the technical ability and nous to enforce his game plan against Williams once he gets put under pressure.

I suspect the first 3-4 rounds Smyle will try to box, and maybe succeed to some degree, but then he will get caught, and be dragged into a fight by Williams, and will eventually be stopped, possibly to the body in the second half of the fight.

PREDICTION: Williams to Win By Stoppage

Posted: 30th Jun 2017

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